On October 24, a webinar co-sponsored by the Group of 78, the G20 Interfaith Forum, and the International Academy for Multicultural Cooperation (IAMC) addressed the topic: “Ukraine and Russia: The Causes of the Conflict, Diplomacy, and Possibilities for Peace.”
The discussion, moderated by Audrey Kitagawe of IAMC delved into the historical connections between Ukraine and Russia, the challenges hindering peace efforts, and the need for diplomatic solutions. The speakers, Professor John Packer, Director of Human Rights Research and Education Centre at the University of Ottawa, and Jonathan Granoff, President of the Global Security Institute and Advisory Board Member of IAMC , gave insights into the conflict’s complexities, discussed historical shifts in Russia’s acceptance of diplomatic norms and external influences on Ukraine’s vulnerabilities. The webinar emphasized the importance of citizen diplomacy, dialogue, and long-term strategies in pursuing sustainable peace, despite the existential crisis looming and the urgent need to avoid catastrophic consequences through civil society initiatives and diplomatic actions.
John Packer explained that the Russian Federation’s aggressive use of force in February 2022 violates the United Nations Charter and breaches multiple international agreements, such as the Budapest agreement and guarantees of security to Ukraine. He discussed how the end of the Cold War led to a new world order with principles of peaceful relations and market economies, which were agreed upon in the early 1990s but have since been undermined by recent events. He argued that attempts to revise or deny these commitments are legally incorrect and highlights the significance of past political failures in shaping the current conflict dynamics between Ukraine and Russia.
Russia was once part of integrative processes aimed at building a united area of sustained security across the Northern Hemisphere through comprehensive and cooperative security mechanisms. This included discussions on human rights and other concerns within the CSSE framework. However, in the late 1990s, there were shifts in Russia’s acceptance of these norms under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, leading to a declaration that they no longer adhere to certain principles. Meanwhile, Ukraine underwent constitutional changes and discussions with various international bodies during this period. The delay in Ukraine’s economic and political reforms was highlighted, with Ukraine being overshadowed by Eastern European and Baltic states in terms of Western priorities for enlargement. Packer also touched on Russia’s diminishing global standing and the adoption of a law on the protection of compatriots abroad in 1999 by the Russian Duma.
Jonathan Granoff referenced a statement signed by President Biden, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov of Russia, and other G20 members emphasizing unity and the need to refrain from using force against the territorial integrity of states, in line with the UN Charter. He pointed out the devastating impact the war has had on the region, with hundreds of thousands of casualties and immense suffering. Granoff also critiqued the contemplation of nuclear weapon use, citing the dangerous shift in rhetoric towards legitimizing their use in conflicts, which goes against the principles that helped end the Cold War. Additionally, he drew a comparison between the military actions of the US and Russia, emphasizing the need for accountability and criticism in democracies to ensure better governance.
Granoff also reflected on the importance of recognizing and admitting to imperfections in all states, emphasizing the duty of citizens to hold their governments accountable and strive for improvement. He highlighted a crucial diplomatic moment in 1985 between Gorbachev and Reagan, where a commitment to avoiding nuclear war and refraining from seeking military advantages paved the way for successful diplomacy. He also discussed the evolving tensions between Russia and the US, pointing out instances where actions taken by the US, such as pursuing strategic dominance through space weaponry, have heightened distrust and instability. By delving into the historical and psychological context of Russia, the speaker sheds light on the deep-rooted fears and perceptions that contribute to the current conflict dynamics.
Granoff outlined a historical timeline of conflicts and invasions involving Ukraine and Russia dating back to the 13th century, highlighting instances such as the Ottoman invasion, the French invasion with Napoleon, the Japanese invasion in the early 1900s, and multiple wars on Russian soil. The narrative underscores the deep-seated fear of invasion and abuse in Russian history, leading to a current state of heightened danger exacerbated by nuclear weapons, lack of trust, and potential misunderstandings. Granoff recounted near-misses and instances where human intervention averted catastrophic outcomes, emphasizing how fragile the balance of power is between the two nations.
Granoff summarized his argument by stating that a failure to address conflicts like the one in Ukraine would make it challenging to work together toward a better future, potentially leading to a dystopian world for future generations.
Packer emphasized that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is a man-made problem resulting from human failures, rather than being predetermined by nature or fate. He stressed the importance of diplomacy and negotiations in achieving sustainable peace, highlighting the need for a positive peace that addresses global challenges like climate change and food security.
Granoff and Packer both highlighted the need for leaders to prioritize truth, science, and international treaties to navigate complex issues. By reinvigorating diplomatic efforts and building trust through dialogue, the speakers believe that long-term commitments and respectful interactions can help foster change and cooperation, even with authoritarian regimes like Russia. They emphasized that while countries may have differing institutions, it is crucial to remember that they are made up of people, and demonizing individuals should be avoided in international relations.
The Global Security Institute is dedicated to strengthening international peace and security based on co-operation, diplomacy, shared interests, the rule of law and universal values. Our efforts are guided by the skills and commitment of our team of former heads of state, distinguished diplomats and politicians, celebrities, religious leaders, Nobel Peace Laureates, disarmament and legal experts, and concerned informed citizens. Our focus is on controlling and eliminating humanity’s greatest threat – nuclear weapons.
